Addendum

Altogether, the forty birders who voted for Virginia’s Next Dozen assembled a cumulative list of seventy-six species that ranged from the obvious picks to some pretty wild longshots! Despite this impressive variety, there are still further species that didn’t receive any votes, yet also have a possibility of making it here. What follows is an addendum that lists some of these species and summarizes previous extralimital records. This list is not exhaustive, as such a list is probably impossible, and we did not treat these species with the same depth as those that received votes. However, one of the purposes of this report is to encourage Virginia birders to, at the least, consider all possibilities; some might even familiarize themselves with a few birds that they hadn’t previously considered. The birds that follow are clearly longshots, but none is impossible. We hope that this addendum will spur additional discussion and thought, and maybe put a few wilder possibilities in folks’ minds. These species are presented in categories that are mostly taxonomic, though we have occasionally lumped similar but unrelated species under a single header for ease of presentation.

WATERBIRDS

Virginia already boasts a fairly comprehensive list of waterfowl, and our voters selected most of the obvious misses. One possibility, though bogged down by provenance issues, is Graylag Goose, which is widespread in Eurasia and has reached North America several times (Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Quebec, Rhode Island, Connecticut). On the more outlandish side, one might consider Lesser White-fronted Goose, which reaches as close as Britain but only has three confirmed North American records (all from Alaska: two on St. Paul in the Pribilofs, the other from Attu Island), and has declined considerably in recent years. There is a 1976 report of this goose from Maryland, which was not accepted by that state’s records committee. Slightly more plausible, Common Shelducks were once largely written off as an escapees but have now been reassessed and accepted as natural vagrants from some locales including Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec (several times), New Brunswick, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. The warming planet may open more pathways for Arctic birds to reach the east, such as Steller’s Eider, which has been recorded once from Massachusetts in 1977. Recent splits among scoters put Common and Velvet Scoters on the table; both have reached Iceland a number of times but are still unrecorded in eastern North America (the latter is unrecorded anywhere in North America). Apart from ducks and geese, waterbird possibilities are fewer, but Arctic Loon rates a mention (Vermont, Ohio, Colorado, and many times on the West Coast). Least Grebe may also be a compelling possibility, though records east of Texas are few (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas).

DOVES, Cuckoos, & Anis

This group presents few possibilities outside those identified by our voters, and they are on the edge of likelihood. European Turtle-Dove has three widely-spaced eastern records (St. Pierre & Miquelon, Massachusetts, Florida). Ruddy Ground-Dove is widespread in the Southwest but has also reached Colorado, Texas, and Mississippi. Once common in Florida, Smooth-billed Ani has declined substantially in its United States range in recent years, making it a distant possibility. Nonetheless, records outside Florida include Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio. Common Cuckoo is exceedingly rare in North America, but an astounding record from Rhode Island (that is still present as of the publication of this report!) certainly merits keeping it in mind. There are also records from Newfoundland and Labrador, and Massachusetts.

AERIALISTS (SWIFTS & SWALLOWS)

We have treated these two unrelated groups together for reasons of behavior and detectability, as these powerful fliers clearly have the ability to cover lots of ground. Common in the tropics of South and Central America, White-collared Swift has reached California, Florida, and southern Ontario. Vaux’s Swift has a handful of Gulf Coast records (Alabama, Florida, Louisiana)—and even winters semi-regularly at specific locations in the latter two—but is unrecorded elsewhere in the East. Old World swifts in the genus Apus are also possible, but present identification issues. Common Swift has been recorded multiple times in Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as Quebec, Bermuda, and California (with a Massachusetts record of Apus sp. that may also pertain to this species). Descending in probability, Alpine Swift has only been recorded in Bermuda while Pallid Swift has yet to reach North America at all. Widespread in the West, White-throated Swift has thus far only reached east as far as Kansas, Arkansas, and Missouri. Among Carribean species, neither Antillean Palm-Swift nor Bahama Swallow has been recorded outside Florida, but the possibility of a post-hurricane record can certainly fuel birders’ wildest speculations. Among the truly wild swallow possibilities, Blue-and-white Swallow reached Texas as a long-awaited ABA-first this year and Mangrove Swallow has a Florida record, while Southern Rough-winged Swallow is unrecorded north of Central America. We can dream! Any winter record of a Progne martin would be the source of endless debate about identification; a recent specimen(!) record from North Carolina has had both Cuban and Sinaloa Martin thrown out as possibilities, illustrating the difficulties of identifying these birds to species. Caribbean Martin has reached Bermuda at least twice, while Common House-Martin has made it there once.

HUMMINGBIRDS

Our voters landed on five hummingbird species as the most likely for Virginia, but as our past records of Violet-crowned and Rivoli’s (to say nothing of Pennsylvania’s Bahama Woodstar!) demonstrate, nothing is off the table when it comes to these rugged little birds. Possibilities are vast, but include a few exciting species with at least a few extralimital records: Blue-throated Mountain-gem (Georgia and Louisiana); Costa’s Hummingbird (Florida, Alabama, Michigan); and White-eared Hummingbird (Alabama, Mississippi, Michigan). Species with even fewer records include Berylline Hummingbird (Michigan); Amethyst-throated Mountain-gem (only two ABA records: Texas and Quebec!); Lucifer Hummingbird (Louisiana); the aforementioned Bahama Woodstar (Pennsylvania). Honorable mention goes to Xantus’s Hummingbird, a Baja endemic which lacks eastern records but has made it all the way to British Columbia.

RAILS & CRANES

This group offers fewer possibilities, but tropical rails have shown up in some truly remarkable places. Azure Gallinule received a single vote, but an equally unexpected species might be Spotted Rail (Texas, Pennsylvania). On the other end of things, Hooded Crane has been recorded thrice in the Midwest (Nebraska, Indiana, Tennessee), with the latter record within striking distance of us. At least as likely, if not more so, Common Crane has records scattered across the Lower 48 and has made it to the East at least three times (Indiana, Quebec, New Jersey).

SHOREBIRDS

On the whole, shorebirds were well-covered by our voters, yet a few of the wilder possibilities remain to discuss here. Eurasian Oystercatcher has reached Newfoundland and Labrador multiple times, including this year. Southern Lapwing has been recorded in Maryland and Florida, but neither record has been accepted as unequivocally of wild origin. Most North American records of Eurasian Dotterel are from the West Coast, but there is an old Bermuda record as well as a recent one from southern Ontario. Far less likely than its cousin, Lesser Sand-Plover (which Virginia already has), Greater Sand-Plover has been recorded from Florida. Sandpipers hold out more potential species, including Surfbird (Maine, Pennsylvania, and multiples in Florida and Texas); Broad-billed Sandpiper (Massachusetts and New York); Common Snipe (twice to Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as Bermuda and a probable Maryland record); Wandering Tattler (Illinois, Indiana, southern Ontario, Massachusetts); Common Greenshank (Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec, Nova Scotia, Bermuda, New York, New Jersey); and Common Redshank (multiple times to Newfoundland and Labrador).

GULLS & TERNS

Easily the most likely larid to not receive a vote is Glaucous-winged Gull, which has a fairly well-established pattern of records through the Great Plains and Great Lakes, with a few further east (Alabama, New Hampshire, Newfoundland and Labrador). Apparently there is also an unconfirmed report of this species from Virginia. Any other possibilities would be truly miraculous, but a few exciting species have reached other states: Gray-hooded Gull (Florida, New York); Belcher’s Gull (Florida); and Gray Gull (photographed in Louisiana by very credible observers, but not accepted by the BRC due to the possibility of a melanistic Laughing Gull). Though still unrecorded from North America, avid larophiles eagerly await the first Mediterranean and Caspian Gulls, and perhaps Virginia is as likely as anywhere. Audouin’s Gull has only reached the Western Hemisphere once (Trinidad & Tobago), but could be a distant possibility. Among terns, a species that should certainly be on Virginia birders’ radars is Whiskered Tern; though still a mega rarity in North America, it has reached as close as Delaware and New Jersey. A far more distant possibility is Large-billed Tern (historic records from Bermuda, New Jersey, Ohio, and Illinois, but all decades old).

PELAGICS (And A Puffin)

As most birders know, the pelagic zone is a truly magical and under-explored place that sometimes yields occurrences far outside of any expectations. Virginia is hampered by the lack of regular, dedicated offshore trips (though this may be changing somewhat, at least on frequency, if not focus on birding), but nonetheless, any one trip could strike it rich. Our voters hit on some of the possibilities, but a number of species are still worth throwing out there: Tahiti Petrel (once off North Carolina, but truly astounding in the Atlantic); Cape Verde Shearwater (several times off North Carolina and once off Maryland); Buller’s Shearwater (once off New Jersey); and Barolo Shearwater (quite a few off Nova Scotia and Massachusetts, but all of them well offshore in deep water). Brown Skua would present an identification nightmare, but there is a record of a freshly-deceased specimen washed up in Bermuda to suggest that they do reach the Northern Hemisphere. Other species that we sometimes think of as “pelagic” are probably more likely to be detected from land (or even inland). Avoid the temptation to always assume Magnificent on a Virginia frigatebird and consider other possibilities: Lesser Frigatebird has been recorded from Maine, Michigan, Wyoming and California (at least one keen birder speculates that a Wythe County frigatebird from 1988 might actually be this species), while Great Frigatebird has multiple records in California and one in Oklahoma. Though not strictly pelagic, Virginia birders are most likely to encounter any puffins well offshore, so we figured we’d toss Tufted Puffin in with this category. Mostly found around the North Pacific and Bering Strait, this is a species that may see an uptick in eastern records as warming temperatures open more ice-free passages across the north. Thus far the only eastern record is an astonishing bird that was seen around Machias Seal Island in both Maine and New Brunswick.

WADERS

Few species in this group remain unaccounted for in Virginia, with only one miss the seems somewhat likely: Western Reef-Heron, which has been recorded in Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Hampshire, Maine, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey. Anything else would be truly exceptional for North America, but surely we can dare to dream! Eurasian Spoonbill has yet to reach this continent but has been recorded multiple times in the Lesser Antilles.

RAPTORS

Again, a group where Virginia is well-represented, but not one without a few tantalizing longshots: Hen Harrier (possibly banded in New Jersey by an experienced raptor bander in 2010) and (if we’re dreaming big!) Black Kite, unrecorded in the ABA Area but with several West Indies records as close as The Bahamas. The only northern owl which received no votes was Northern Hawk Owl, which generally only makes it as close as New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, but has an outlying record from West Virginia. Less likely (and less detectable), Flammulated Owl has been recorded from a few Gulf Coast states (Florida, Alabama, Louisiana). Falcons also offer a couple more possibilities: Eurasian Hobby (Massachusetts) and Red-footed Falcon (Massachusetts, possibly New Jersey).

WOODPECKERS

Most of the likely species already appear on Virginia’s list, but there are still a few contenders that deserve a brief mention. Two of these are boreal species: Black-backed Woodpecker (which has reached as far south as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey) and American Three-toed Woodpecker (which has reached New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey), but neither species has made it particularly far south in recent years. Williamson’s Sapsucker likewise seems a dim possibility, but has records from New York, Illinois, Minnesota, and Louisiana. Red-breasted Sapsucker seems even less likely, having only made it as far as extreme western Iowa.

PASSERINES

As a group, the flycatchers present some of the most exciting longshot possibilities. A few of these (e.g., Sulphur-bellied, Variegated) received votes, but others didn’t get the nod yet could nonetheless happen. The elaenias—a group of Central and South American flycatchers with no regularly-occurring representatives in North America—present some possibilities. White-crested Elaenia has been recorded from Texas and North Dakota (the latter in 2020!), while Greenish Elaenia has made it to coastal Texas. Underscoring the identification challenges, a well-documented individual in Chicago was left unidentified, with either White-crested or Small-billed Elaenia (a would-be first North American record) mentioned as possibilities. Myiarchus flycatchers offer a few options: Dusky-capped Flycatcher has only made it as far east as Oklahoma and Louisiana, while Brown-crested Flycatcher seems more likely with many records on the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida. Additional tropical species that are even slimmer possibilities include Piratic Flycatcher (Texas, New Mexico, Kansas, Florida); Crowned Slaty Flycatcher (Louisiana); and Thick-billed Kingbird (Texas, South Dakota, southern Ontario).

Vireos are well-represented on the Virginia list, and our voters hit upon most of the remaining possibilities, but one that deserves mention is Plumbeous Vireo, with records from Alabama, Louisiana, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, and southern Ontario. Other possibilities are quite distant, but why not aim for the stars? Yucatan Vireo has made it to coastal Texas once! It would be a true shocker if Virginia added any shrikes (and what are shrikes, if not large, flesh-eating vireos?), but Brown Shrike has once reached Nova Scotia.

Among the no-vote species, one with a fairly robust pattern is Clark’s Nutcracker, which has a good number of records in the Midwest (Ontario, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, and Missouri) with outliers reaching to Arkansas, Louisiana, and Alabama. Though it presents an identification challenge, Pacific Wren is an intriguing possibility, with records east to Iowa, Michigan, and Louisiana (the latter two both occurring just prior to publication of this report). A bit more in the “dare to dream” category, American Dipper is not prone to wander but has made it east as far as Dallas. Old World warblers or flycatchers are identification and taxonomic nightmares that we rarely deal with in the East, but Arctic Warbler and Dark-sided Flycatcher have made it to Bermuda.

Thrushes seem to offer few candidates, though Redwing does have many records in the Canadian Maritimes as well as a few further south (New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania). Among mimids, Curve-billed Thrasher is poorly represented in the east but certainly has plenty of extralimital records elsewhere (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Louisiana). Phainopepla would be quite a shocker, yet this silky-flycatcher has reached Wisconsin, southern Ontario, and Massachusetts. Though more common on the West Coast, Eastern Yellow Wagtail has also reached our region, with a record in New York and an Eastern/Western Yellow Wagtail record from Alabama. Citrine Wagtail would be rarer still, but the first North American record came from Mississippi(!) in the early 1990s, and it has since reached the West Coast two additional times.

Another group with several possibilities is the finches. A handful of Eurasian species have reached the Northeast and could conceivably make it to Virginia, including Common Chaffinch (Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Maine, and Massachusetts); European Greenfinch (often treated as an escapee, but New York has a confirmed eBird record); and Eurasian Siskin (Newfoundland and Labrador, Maine). Among North American species, the nomadic Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch has many eastern records (Ontario, Quebec, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Arkansas). Less likely by far is Cassin’s Finch, which has only made it to Minnesota and southern Ontario.

Sparrows and their allies also present some compelling options. Thick-billed Longspur (née McCown’s) would give us the longspur sweep, and does occasionally make it east (Minnesota, Michigan, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, Massachusetts). Sagebrush Sparrow has reached the East only thrice (Michigan, Kentucky, Nova Scotia). Baird’s Sparrow has a handful of records fairly near to us (West Virginia, Maryland, twice in New York), but none more recent than 1984. Though Rufous-crowned Sparrow breeds as close as Arkansas, vagrants are quite rare and a Wisconsin record is truly exceptional.

Icterids have a few possibilities to offer. Orioles somewhat mirror hummingbirds, in the sense that tropical species have occasionally turned up in bizarre locations. A celebrated, long-staying Black-backed Oriole in Pennsylvania (the same individual was also seen in Massachusetts and Connecticut!) drove home this point. Other species within the realm of possibility include Audubon’s Oriole (Indiana) and Streak-backed Oriole (eastern Texas, Wisconsin). One species that is too-often neglected as a possibility is Great-tailed Grackle; its regular range stops just short of the Mississippi River, but it has reached Florida, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin, southern Ontario, and Nova Scotia. A point in favor of a wayward Great-tailed being found in Virginia is that, if it is found anywhere other than the coast, it is likely to be detected—if you find a Boat-tailed Grackle in Rockbridge, it probably ain’t one! 

Two more groups round out the passerines. Warblers were admirably covered by our voters, but there are still two species that deserve a mention: Golden-cheeked Warbler (Florida, Missouri, California) and Red-faced Warbler (Wyoming, Colorado, Texas, Louisiana, Georgia). Two possibilities stand out among the cardinals and their allies: Hepatic Tanager (Nebraska, Illinois, Michigan, Quebec) and Varied Bunting (Pennsylvania, southern Ontario).

DEALER’S CHOICE

Just for fun, the three of us have selected our most likely of the highly unlikely from the pool above. Enjoy these “staff picks,” or come up with a few of your own!  

Matt’s picks are a mixed bag of (mostly) passerines with a smattering of others tossed in. Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch and Clark’s Nutcracker receive top honors, owing to the preponderance of extralimital records. Whiskered Tern, with records from Cape May and Bombay Hook, gets the nod since Chincoteague seem poised. Less likely, but fun, are Ruddy Ground-Dove, Rufous-crowned Sparrow, and Western Reef Heron. If one dares choose an ABA first, let’s shoot for the stars: Eurasian Spoonbill.

Todd’s are all passerines and near passerines. In order of (un)likelihood: Gray-crowned Rosy-Finch, Clark’s Nutcracker, Curve-billed Thrasher, Williamson’s Sapsucker, and White-throated Swift.

Nick’s picks have distinctly western and European flavors; the representatives out of the American West (Varied Bunting, Hepatic Tanager, and Plumbeous Vireo) seems more likely to occur first, but a man can dream that the Eastern Hemisphere species will beat them to the punch. Common Redshank and Common Snipe both require diligent observers to tease them out from their more common congeners, but Virginia certainly has the talent required to do so. And, one can dream that Bermuda, Barbados, and Guadalupe may one day have something special in common with Virginia if we notch an ABA first Alpine Swift.