The Also-Rans

These species only received one or two votes, but write them off at your own peril! Even a cursory look at new additions to any state list over a period of time reveals a mixture of relatively expected species and truly off-the-wall wildcards. No matter how unlikely they may seem, any of these birds could be the next addition to Virginia’s list. Species are ranked by weighted total, with ties presented alphabetically.

BOREAL OWL

Aegolius funereus

(1/40 lists, 2 points)

Among the northern owls, this species and Great Gray received one vote each (leaving none for poor Northern Hawk Owl). Both species are irruptive, but both also rarely reach anywhere close to Virginia. The closest Boreal Owl to date is a roosting bird in Central Park that was eagerly chased by dozens of birders. That still leaves a good deal of territory between Virginia and New York City, and unlike other northern owls, Boreal doesn’t present the advantage of being conspicuous. In fact, quite the opposite, these little owls are well-known for their secrecy and difficulty to detect, much like their Northern Saw-Whet Owl cousins. Short of some lucky birder tripping over a roosting one, perhaps the most likely way this species ends up in Virginia is if one is caught by saw-whet banders. Indeed, the sole respondent who voted for this species predicted that this is exactly how the record will come to pass.

EGYPTIAN GOOSE

Alopochen aegyptiaca

(1/40 lists, 2 points)

This exotic species has been present in parts of North America since at least the late 1960s, and it is now a well-established (in some places even ubiquitous) member of the avifauna in parts of Florida, Texas, and California. There are also smaller populations in other areas, including Arkansas, though these populations may not be thoroughly established. Free-flying Egyptian Geese are occasionally reported elsewhere across North America, but these birds are generally assumed to be escapees. Population trends in North America are not well-studied, but this species does seem to be increasing in many areas, particularly Florida. While it has not significantly expanded its range yet, there is concern that Egyptian Geese could turn out to be invasive, as has been the case in the United Kingdom and continental Europe. This bird is well-adapted to suburban and urban areas, and has even been known to take a liking to golf courses (sound familiar?). If Egyptian Geese do begin a large population expansion, they will certainly find many areas in eastern North America to their liking. Conceivably this species could reach Virginia as a natural vagrant, and may even eventually become naturalized here. However, until there is enough of a clear population expansion out of Florida, it seems likely that individuals in Virginia will be written off as escapees. Thus the biggest hurdle this species may have to clear to appear on the Virginia list is not just simply getting here, but convincing the records committee that it is a wild bird.

CASSIN’S VIREO

Vireo cassinii

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

Though there are very few eastern records of this western former Solitary Vireo, this may be as much a reflection of identification difficulties as actual vagrancy. The three species that make up the Solitary Vireo complex (Blue-headed, Cassin’s, and Plumbeous) are notoriously similar, with a wide degree of overlap in plumage. This is especially true with Cassin’s and Blue-headed, as both are highly variable; the brightest Cassin’s can overlap considerably with the dullest Blue-headeds. Of course, a wayward bird is not impossible, as records from Illinois, New York, Vermont, and Maine attest. A valid Virginia record would likely require extremely thorough documentation, so be ready to take extensive photographs of any drab, unseasonal “Blue-headed Vireos.” For birds that fall within the overlap, definitive identification may be impossible, so confirming this species in Virginia also likely rests on getting an individual that falls on the extreme end of the drabness spectrum. While all of this adds up to a perfect storm of necessary factors, the documentation for the 2017 Maine record (both written and photographic) stands up as a model for how to properly identify and record this species out-of-range. While it received no votes, it is also worth noting that Plumbeous Vireo (the dullest of the Solitary complex) is also in the realm of extreme possibility. There are likewise very few eastern records, and most of these are clustered around the Great Lakes, but Plumbeous does have the virtue of being more obviously different from Blue-headed.

CORN CRAKE

Crex crex

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

Despite having a fairly well-established pattern of vagrancy to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, this secretive European rail only received two votes. That may be because records from this century are few and far between, and the species has a number of factors working against it including extreme detectability issues and steep population declines. The history of past records tells this story, as a substantial chunk of the North American records date from the late-19th and early-20th centuries. The nearest record to Virginia is a Maryland bird from southern Worcester County (just up the road from Greenbackville!), but this record is nearly 120 years old. While purely speculative, some posit that more Corn Crakes occur but simply go undetected, perhaps because shorebirds and rails are no longer hunted as they were at the turn of the last century. However, this species is also undergoing significant declines in its home range that probably translate to fewer transatlantic records. On top of it all, Corn Crakes are just as secretive as most other rails, so the odds of detecting a vagrant are low. Some of the few 21st century records bear witness to this: a 2014 bird in Maine was only found because it photobombed someone, and wasn’t correctly identified until 2 years after the sighting; a 2016 record from Pennsylvania was attacked by a cat and succumbed to its injuries. This species made a sudden return to many birders’ radars in 2017 thanks to a cooperative individual on Long Island that was seen by many birders, likely the first chaseable one in the U.S. in many decades. As disoriented rails sometimes do, this bird made the unfortunate choice of lingering in a completely unsuitable location (a highway median, in this case), and was ultimately killed by a car. The time to be on the lookout for this species is definitely late fall. Although there are a few January records, and at least one from September, the vast majority of records are clustered at the end of October and beginning of November.

EUROPEAN GOLDEN-PLOVER

Pluvialis apricaria

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

Pulling in just two votes, this species trailed well behind its Pacific counterpart, which finished in the top ten. This is with good reason, as European Golden-Plover seems far less prone to vagrancy in our region than Pacific. In Newfoundland and Labrador this species is a regular vagrant, with dozens of records. There, it exhibits a fairly clear pattern of spring vagrancy, and a majority of records come from April and May. Further south, this species is much less regular and also less predictable. There are a few records from Nova Scotia and Quebec, and less than ten records in the Lower 48. The good news is that most of those are from the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, including single records from Maine and Delaware as well as two records in New Jersey. Interestingly, Lower 48 records have occurred in every month from July to October, with southern Canada adding May and June to the mix. Clearly more southern records don’t adhere to the strong spring pattern in the Maritimes, and this species could conceivably turn up at almost any time save for the dead of winter. Astonishingly, New Mexico also has a record that was first detected in the beginning of October 2020 and is still being reported as of the time of this writing! This species could show up at one of Virginia’s shorebird meccas, but it seems just as likely that it could turn up (as golden-plovers often do) in a random agricultural field or sod farm. As with Pacific, identification of this species is challenging and relies on subtle structural factors including overall stockiness, large-headed appearance, short bill, and obviously shorter wings. A breeding-plumaged adult will show white flanks and undertail coverts, unlike American, while non-breeding birds have a more well-defined breastband. The most reliable identification factor may be the white underwing, which differentiates this species from American and Pacific (both have gray underwings) in all plumages.

FIELDFARE

Turdus pilaris

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

This striking European thrush has a fairly well-established pattern of vagrancy in the Canadian Maritimes and eastern Quebec, but records further south are few and far between. At present, there are only seven records for the Lower 48, which puts this species solidly in the longshot category. The furthest south it has reached is Bombay Hook; latitudinally, this is barely within reach of Virginia. However, that record dates to 1969, and most of the other eastern records occurred between the late 1960s and early 1980s. That being said, both Massachusetts (2013) and Maine (2017) have records this century, so perhaps a Virginia record is not out of the question. Previous records seem to fall mostly between January and April. Carefully checking large robin flocks may be one way to pick this species out, but keep in mind that not all previous records have been associated with these flocks. 

GRAY FLYCATCHER

Empidonax wrightii

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

Few things seem less exciting than an Empidonax flycatcher that is mostly distinguished by being even drabber than its relatives, yet a Gray Flycatcher would undoubtedly cause quite a stir if one were to turn up in Virginia! This species mostly occupies brushy, arid habitats in a wide swath of the American West reaching as far east as west Texas. It is a casual visitor to points further east in Texas, as well as Louisiana, but also has a small but distinct pattern of vagrancy to the Northeast. There is a fairly sizable cluster of records around Lake Erie, with multiple from northern Ohio and southern Ontario. Along the Atlantic coast, this species has a peculiar distribution of records at nearly even intervals from Maine to Delaware. There is also an inland North Carolina record from just south of Chapel Hill. Some of the records date to the late 1980s and early 1990s, but there are also some 21st century records, with the most recent being the Maine bird in 2018. This clearly seems to be a fall and winter bird, with all records falling between September and January with the exception of two anomalies: a southern Ontario bird from June, and an Ohio bird from August. Perhaps this is due in part to the higher detection probability of a displaced Empid in late fall and winter, when the expected species have departed. When evaluating a suspected candidate, keep in mind that Gray Flycatcher is our largest and longest Empid. It is a long-tailed and long-billed bird, with overall pale and drab plumage. An important behavioral characteristic to consider is its lazy tail wag, a distinctive motion among Empidonax flycatchers that are usually more prone to rapid tail flicking.

GREEN-BREASTED MANGO

Anthracothorax prevostii

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

This Central American species came in last among what might be termed the five “expected” hummingbird species. Though it is a casual visitor to Texas, records from other states are mostly eastern and otherwise quite random. This striking hummer has been recorded in Louisiana, Georgia, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Unfortunately, there have been no records outside of Texas in recent years and all of the aforementioned records occurred between 2000 and 2009. Of course, the sky's the limit with tropical hummingbirds! This large, distinctive species is quite unlike any of our typical hummingbirds, so one is likely to attract attention if it visits a feeder.

KELP GULL

Larus dominicanus

(2/40 lists, 2 points)

Though abundant in the Southern Hemisphere, this species only rarely makes it north of South America. However, the birds that do make it to our neck of the woods seem to show up in a scattershot pattern. Records are widely distributed, with occurrences in northern and southern California, coastal Texas and Louisiana, Florida, the Great Lakes, Maryland, and Delaware, as well as a few from the Canadian Maritimes. A fair amount of these records pertain to adult birds, which may be at least partially due to identification difficulties. Even in adult plumage, Kelp Gulls don’t exactly stick out like a sore thumb, and confusion with both Great and Lesser Black-backed Gulls is possible. Kelp Gull is intermediate in size between its black-backed cousins, but structurally it is a large, stock, blocky-headed bird more similar to Great. The biggest giveaway on an adult bird is the jet-black mantle color, which is much blacker than any regularly-occurring Lesser subspecies and even a tad darker than a Great. Kelp Gulls also rarely show any head streaking, another factor which may be useful in separating one from Lessers. This species seems to have reached North America somewhat more frequently in the 1990s and early 2000s, and during this era some even hybridized with Herring Gulls on the Chandeleur Islands in Louisiana. The closest record to Virginia, a long-staying bird in southern Maryland nicknamed “Shrimpie,” also dates to this time period. However, some of the Great Lakes records as well as both from the Canadian Maritimes are more recent.

AZURE GALLINULE

Porphyrio flavirostris

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

While this species may seem at first glance like the longest of longshots, there is certainly some precedent for bizarre records of South and Central American rails. Neighboring Pennsylvania has the only North American record of Spotted Rail, while Virginia already has its own in the form of North America’s only Paint-billed Crake, which was found wandering a suburban neighborhood in 1978. Nor is Azure Gallinule without precedent, as there is a single North American record of a bird found dead in a backyard in New York in 1986. That said, there are no other records anywhere north of the Caribbean for this South American species. As with almost all rails, detectability is a major issue, and as has been the case in the past with out-of-range rails, Virginia’s record is just as likely to be a bird found dead (or brought in by someone’s cat) as a free-ranging bird that birders can enjoy.

BANANAQUIT

Coereba flaveola

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

In the tropics this is one of the most widespread, abundant, and conspicuous species. It’s a different story in North America, however, where this bird is only a casual visitor to coastal southeastern Florida. Even elsewhere in Florida, it is a fairly notable bird, with scattered records on the Panhandle, Gulf Coast, and further north on the Atlantic Coast. Though the odds may be stacked against a vagrant, it wouldn’t be the first time a Caribbean bird showed up wildly out-of-place. Virginia’s White-crowned Pigeon record comes to mind, as does a mind-boggling record of Bahama Woodstar from Pennsylvania. 

BLACK SWIFT

Cypseloides niger

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Any swift (other than Chimney, of course) would be new for the state, but Black Swift was the only one to receive a vote. With very few records anywhere in eastern North America, this species is clearly a longshot. Though it has a large breeding range in the West, there is also a Caribbean subspecies that is much closer to the East and could be the source of what few records there are. Southern Ontario has recorded this species twice (2006 and 2009), and there is also a 2007 record from Alabama. However, the most compelling record in terms of this species as a potential Virginia vagrant is a 2011 bird at Cape May that was associated with Hurricane Irene. Coming close on the heels of a major hurricane, this bird has fueled speculation that Caribbean Black Swifts are a potential storm vagrant. Of course, identifying and documenting out-of-range swifts is quite difficult. In the case of the Cape May bird, both White-collared Swift and an Old World swift of the genus Apus were considered before consensus arrived at Black. Had we offered “swift sp.” as a voting option, perhaps this would have gained even more traction, as there are any number of western, tropical, or Old World species that could conceivably turn up. Perhaps needless to say, any swift seen out-of-season merits scrutiny—don’t assume it’s a Chimney!

BLACK-CAPPED VIREO

Vireo atricapilla

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Perhaps our most striking vireo, this boldly-patterned bird occupies a very limited breeding range in southern Oklahoma and central Texas, with wintering grounds in southwestern Mexico. It is federally endangered, and populations are carefully managed. Records outside the core breeding range in North America are few and far between; even in eastern Texas there are but a small handful, and a 2020 record from just west of New Orleans was a state first for Louisiana. However, records from British Columbia (2008), Quebec (2009), and southern Ontario (1991) at least suggest the possibility of long-distance wandering. Though chances are slim, a misdirected migrant could end up in Virginia, to the delight of many birders! The silver lining is that, as one of the most distinctive species on the continent, this bird has a high probability of being correctly identified by anyone who finds it.

CANADA JAY

Perisoreus canadensis

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Affectionately known as the “whiskey jack” throughout much of its range, this gregarious northerner is beloved for its curiosity and willingness to approach humans. Though widespread in the West, reaching down to northern California and the Rocky Mountains, in the East this species is much more solidly Canadian. In the eastern United States, these jays are mostly confined to boreal forests in northern Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont, as well as the Adirondacks in New York. Wanderers occasionally reach as far south as Pennsylvania, though this is quite rare. Even in southern New York, the few records date to the early- and mid-1970s. The closest this species has made it in recent times is Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Though certainly a longshot, this species is also undoubtedly going to be affected by climate change in the coming years, and who can say whether more birds might start wandering as their habitat recedes. If one does reach Virginia, the odds of discovery for a large, charismatic bird that is unafraid of humans are certainly high!

COMMON BLACK HAWK

Buteogallus anthracinus

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This widespread raptor of Central and northern South America reaches the upper limits of its breeding range in the American Southwest, primarily New Mexico and Arizona. Outside of this core range, there is a smattering of records widely distributed across the southwestern U.S., including California, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Texas. Unfortunately this species seems not to be prone to eastern wanderings, with only a single Florida record anywhere east of Texas. Odds seem slim for this one, but tropical raptors sometimes defy expectations. It was only a few years ago that Virginia notched our only Zone-tailed Hawk, certainly not a species that would have made many Next Dozens. Even more astounding, the Great Black Hawk that attempted to overwinter in Maine in 2018/2019 upended a good deal of conventional wisdom.

EURASIAN KESTREL

Falco tinnunculus

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This small falcon is widespread across the Old World, and some populations undertake long-distance migrations, yet it is a relatively rare transatlantic vagrant. Oddly enough, it has been found at almost opposite ends of eastern North America; there is a 2003 record from Florida, as well as records from Massachusetts (2002), New Brunswick (1987-1988), and most recently, Nova Scotia (2014-2015). There is also a 1968 record from Bermuda, as well as an astonishing 1997 record of a bird that boarded a ship in Lisbon and spent two months at sea catching storm-petrels before disembarking in Halifax, Nova Scotia! Many of these records have been long-staying birds, sometimes lingering for months, so there is a good chance a Eurasian Kestrel in Virginia is chaseable. The majority of the North American records seem to be of birds that were discovered in late fall or winter, though most of these birds subsequently lingered as late as March. The exception to this is the Massachusetts bird, which was present from April to May. Both sexes are quite distinctive, though females are more nondescript and could go unnoticed. Provenance can sometimes be a concern with vagrant falcons due to the possibility of falconers’ birds, but this species seems not to be as popular in captivity as some of the larger falcons. 

GRACE’S WARBLER

Setophaga graciae

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This sprightly, elfin bird of the southwestern pine forests is also one of our more enigmatic warblers. Its breeding range in the United States is fairly restricted, mostly centered around the Four Corners states and spilling over into southern Nevada and west Texas. These populations are migratory, while birds in central Mexico and further south are sedentary. Grace’s Warblers are secretive breeders that prefer large stands of mature pine; perhaps due to reductions in these habitats, this species has experienced substantial declines in the United States. Whether due to its retiring nature, declining population, or perhaps just a tendency not to wander, this species has been seldom-detected as a vagrant. It is casual to California, and there are a handful of Texas records outside the western part of the state. Records further east are even harder to come by, and a look at the eBird maps for this species paints an odd picture of records, nearly evenly spaced, extending eastward in almost a straight line from western Nebraska. There are two Nebraska records at opposite ends of the state, as well as singles from Chicago, Point Pelee in southern Ontario, and Long Island in New York. Timing is also quite variable; one Nebraska record and the Point Pelee bird are from May (coincidentally, both on 4 May in different years), while the other Nebraska record and the Chicago bird are from September. The Long Island one was present for several days in early January. Given the scarcity of records, this species is probably not at the top of the list for vagrant warblers in Virginia, but it is also not substantially less likely than the Lucy’s Warbler that we already have. It is a fairly distinctive bird, most similar to Yellow-throated but lacking a bold facial pattern. However, a fleeting view could possibly lead to confusion with Northern Parula, which is also slate-blue above and yellow below. Given the distribution of previous records, this species could conceivably turn up anywhere with pines, though detection may be most likely in late fall or winter when few yellow-ish warblers are around.

GRAY HERON

Ardea cinerea

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This Old World counterpart to the Great Blue Heron is a common and widespread species throughout much of the eastern hemisphere. On our side of the world, however, it is a much rarer visitor. The vast majority of records are concentrated in Newfoundland, which has recorded this species in 2010, 2013, 2016, and 2018, including some years with multiple, widely-separated records that could represent different individuals. Though still a major rarity, this species does seem to be on the uptick in the Northeast, and 2020 provided the first two records outside Newfoundland: one in Nova Scotia, and the first Lower 48 record in Massachusetts. Perhaps it is only a matter of time until they start turning up further south. This species is also a regular visitor to the Lesser Antilles, so there is perhaps a slim chance that one could reach us from the south. Beware of identification issues, as this species is strikingly similar to Great Blue Heron, and thoroughly document any potential candidates.

GRAY-HEADED SWAMPHEN

Porphyrio poliocephalus

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This striking bird is native to southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East, but it has been a part of the North American avifauna since 1996, when accidental releases resulted in a small, free-ranging population near Pembroke Pines, Florida. Since then, and despite efforts to eradicate the population, this species has taken to the wetlands of south Florida with amazing rapidity. Barely a footnote in the early 2000s, this bird is now a common and expanding breeder in much of the state extending as far north as Orlando and Gainesville. Though still rare anywhere outside Florida, there are now records from South Carolina (2018) and Georgia (2019). As the species continues to expand, it seems that additional records north of Florida are a question of when, not if. The species still has a ways to go until it reaches Virginia, but that could certainly be in the cards for us in the future. Certainly a swamphen would feel right at home in the marshes of Back Bay!

GRAY-TAILED TATTLER

Tringa brevipes

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Definitely one of the biggest longshot votes, this mostly-Eurasian shorebird is only a regular visitor to the western Aleutians and the Pribilofs. Even elsewhere in Alaska it is fairly notable, and records further south are extremely rare. In the Lower 48 there are precious few records, but the species has reached both coasts and made it as far south as Los Angeles. Perhaps bolstering the case for Virginia, two eastern records have occurred within the past decade: Massachusetts in 2012, and Maine in 2017. In both cases, the bird was initially discovered by a keen observer who recognized a distinctive but unfamiliar shorebird call. Although it didn’t receive any votes, it is worth noting that Wandering Tattler also has some history of vagrancy including records from Massachusetts, southern Ontario, eastern Texas, Indiana, and Illinois (the latter two within the past decade). While a species-level identification is obviously preferable, it is always possible that Virginia’s tattler could go down as a “slash” if viewing conditions or documentation are less-than-ideal.

GREAT GRAY OWL

Strix nebulosa

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Though the film The Big Year memorably depicted this species in the George Washington National Forest in Virginia, in actuality our largest owl has never made it any closer to Virginia than northern Ohio, northern Pennsylvania, and southern New York. This certainly leaves a long way to go until one reaches Virginia. Like other northern owls, Great Grays are somewhat irruptive, occasionally making major incursions south depending on a variety of factors on their home turf. Perhaps a major invasion year could lead one of these spectacular birds to make it all the way here. A point in this bird’s favor is that it is a stunningly charismatic species that is likely to be noticed and probably photographed even if a non-birder is the one to find it.

GREAT KISKADEE

Pitangus sulphuratus

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This colorful, charismatic flycatcher is certainly one of the highlights for birders who visit the Rio Grande Valley, but what if one were to make it to Virginia? Though there are not an abundance of vagrant records, this species is also no stranger to occasional wanderings. It is a semi-regular visitor along the Texas coast to western Louisiana, with some records further east around New Orleans. More distant from the core range, there are also records from Colorado, Kansas, South Dakota, western Tennessee, Indiana, southern Ontario, and South Carolina. All of the records east of the Mississippi (apart from New Orleans) occurred in 2018, suggesting either a specific event or increasing vagrancy for the species. Though not accepted by the records committee, in 2011 a Great Kiskadee (or multiple) was photographed a few weeks apart in two locations in New York. This species is well-established in Bermuda, which raises the possibility that a vagrant could just as easily reach Virginia from there as from Texas.

GREAT KNOT

Calidris tenuirostris

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This striking Old World shorebird certainly falls into the “longshots” category, but then again, a 2007 record from the western part of West Virginia certainly defied all expectations for this species. Unfortunately, while Great Knot is semi-regular to western Alaska, records for the Lower 48 are much sparser. Apart from the astounding West Virginia bird, there is a 2016 record from Seal Island NWR in coastal Maine, and a handful of West Coast records. Fortunately this is (as shorebirds go) a fairly distinctive species that is likely to stand out to any birders lucky enough to spot it!

MASKED DUCK

Nomonyx dominicus

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

If one were to look solely at records from nearby states, Masked Duck might seem a much higher contender, with records from neighboring Maryland, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Kentucky. Take a look at the dates of these records, however, and the prospects become dimmer, with no eastern records away from Florida this century. The North Carolina and Pennsylvania records both date to the early 1980s, while the Maryland record goes all the way back to 1905! This species is also notoriously secretive, meaning that detectability is low even if a vagrant reaches Virginia. However, there is some evidence that this species undergoes cyclical invasions in south Texas, and that these invasions have corresponded with vagrant records in other states. Perhaps all it takes is another such invasion for Virginia to get ours!

RED-FOOTED BOOBY

Sula sula

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This widespread tropical species is the rarest of the eastern sulids, only sporadically visiting Florida and very rarely turning up elsewhere. It occasionally shows up along the Gulf Coast, with records from the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, and Louisiana. There are also a handful of records from coastal Georgia and South Carolina. Further afield, one was detected from a cruise ship in North Carolina waters in 2019, while the most astonishing record is a 2014 bird from Nova Scotia waters. These two records hint at pelagic wanderings, and this species could certainly be the subject of a chance encounter on a Virginia boat. However, the paucity of records (with none from Brian Patteson’s frequent trips) doesn’t seem favorable. Like other sulids, this species can also turn up close to shore, and a fair amount of the Atlantic and Gulf Coast records are from birds that were either visible from shore or were seen on the ground. Unlike Brown Booby, which shows up inland with regularity, the only inland record of this species is a bird found in a backyard in Vernon Parish, Louisiana. If this species does get detected in Virginia, there is a very real chance it is spotted by a seawatcher along the coast, perhaps at Little Island Park or Rudee Inlet.

RED-NAPED SAPSUCKER

Sphyrapicus nuchalis

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This western counterpart to our familiar Yellow-bellied Sapsucker is notoriously similar to its eastern cousin — in fact, they were considered conspecific (along with Red-breasted Sapsucker) until 1983. Typically, this Rocky Mountain denizen is found no closer to the eastern United States than the Great Divide. True vagrants are exceedingly rare, though there is a 2005 record from central Ohio. Complicating matters is the fact that identification of out-of-range sapsuckers is notoriously complex. Not even the telltale red nape is diagnostic, as occasional variant Yellow-bellieds can show this feature, a fact which both confuses birders and makes it difficult to verify a suspected record. Further muddying the water is the fact that Red-naped Sapsuckers are known to hybridize with both Yellow-bellied and Red-breasted in their limited range overlaps. All of these factors make identifying a Red-naped Sapsucker in Virginia a highly fraught, though not impossible, task. If you find a suspected candidate, study it carefully, take copious notes, and fire off as many photos as possible!

SCALY-BREASTED MUNIA

Lonchura punctulata

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This species is a well-established part of the avifauna in southern California, the greater Houston area, the Gulf Coast of Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida, and the Miami area. It is a fairly distinctive bird, likely to be noticed if one does turn up. And with a smattering of reports elsewhere in the country, it is possible that a free-flying individual could be recorded anywhere in Virginia. As with many exotics, however, the biggest problem with any potential record will be provenance. Though wild origin from an introduced population is possible, this species is also regularly kept in captivity. Absent clear evidence of population expansions in the states south of us, or a more compelling pattern of vagrancy, the obstacle this species will face is convincing a records committee it is a wild bird.

SHORT-TAILED HAWK

Buteo brachyurus

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Though widely distributed throughout Central and South America, this species is represented in North America only by a disjunct breeding population in Florida, where its population is around 500 individuals. The Florida population undergoes a short migration from breeding grounds in the north-central part of the state and winters mostly south of Lake Okeechobee. It is less clear to what extent Latin American populations migrate, but the species is a casual visitor to south Texas and southeast Arizona. Elsewhere, wandering birds are quite exceptional; a 2013 Georgia record from near Savannah represents the northern extent on the East Coast. However, there is also a 2005 record from Whitefish Point in Michigan, so long-distance vagrants are possible, if exceptionally rare.

SULPHUR-BELLIED FLYCATCHER

Myiodynastes luteiventris

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Vying with Variegated as the longest-shot among flycatchers on this list, an occurrence of this southwestern canyon-dweller certainly doesn’t feel imminent. This species is mostly found in Central and South America, though its breeding range barely extends into the United States in southeastern Arizona. As a vagrant, it is a casual visitor to both the California Coast and the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida, with over a dozen records in each region. North of Florida, this species has a weak but noticeable penchant for northeastern vagrancy, with nine eBird records falling in a fairly tight window from late-September to mid-October (with one in early November). Unfortunately, almost all of these records seem to come from well to our north in the Canadian Maritimes and southern Ontario. The outlier is a 2006 bird from Cape May, certainly close enough to Virginia to fuel speculation! Most of these records are more than fifteen years old, though as we were preparing this report a bird showed up and was seen for several days in New Brunswick! Given previous patterns, it seems most likely that a Virginia bird would be found between the end of September and the end of October. Among flycatcher species already on the ABA, identification of this species is straightforward. However, Streaked Flycatcher should carefully be ruled out on any extralimital sighting.

SWINHOE’S STORM-PETREL

Oceanodroma monorhis

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Trailing behind its black-bellied cousin in the “random pelagics” category, this species received only a single vote. Records on our side of the Atlantic are sparse, though Hatteras has had this species at least three times. There are more reports in the eastern Atlantic, so it seems logical that there are more birds out there that simply go undetected. As with all pelagic rarities, the lack of regular and affordable offshore birding opportunities in Virginia doesn’t do us any favors. But needless to say, any dark-rumped storm-petrel on a Virginia pelagic is cause for excitement!

TUNDRA BEAN-GOOSE

Anser serrirostris

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

This Old World goose has populations spread throughout Eurasia with the closest to Virginia being in Western Europe. While the U.K. has hundreds of records, Iceland seems to have substantially fewer (less than a dozen in eBird). Mainland North America has around a dozen records spread widely, with a clear concentration in the Pacific Northwest. Moving east to the center of the continent, Saskatchewan and Alberta each have winter/early spring records. An exceptional record from Arkansas in January 2018 provides evidence of this species’ ability to get very lost. These Central and Western flyway birds are probably more likely to have originated from an Asian population. There are two eastern Canada records, however, that very likely pertain to Eurasian birds. The first record is from October 1982 and was discovered among a flock of tens of thousands of Snow Geese in Quebec. The second sighting comes from Nova Scotia of a bird that stayed for nearly the entire month of November in 2013; this individual associated with a flock of less than 100 Canada Geese. Tundra Bean-Goose bears a resemblance to Greater White-fronted, Graylag and Pink-footed Geese. Fortunately for Virginians, we do not have thousands of these species to pick through so if a Tundra Bean is found it is likely to stick out.

VARIEGATED FLYCATCHER

Empidonomus varius

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

Anywhere, spring or fall. That’s probably the best way to characterize this pretty flycatcher’s pattern of showing up around North America. eBird shows seven records for the US and Canada, sweeping from Washington to Maine, and south to Florida and Texas (Tennessee and Ontario “fill in” the middle). Birds have been discovered in May, June, September (twice), October (twice), and November. Of all these records, with one exception, the bird was seen for multiple days (ranging from two days to a month, with the average being a week or less). 

Preferring exposed branches in either the canopy or the forest edges, the bird is also found in urban areas and parks. The only likely confusion species is the equally-rare Piratic Flycatcher, which only has a few records in the central US and one in Florida. 

While this species is certainly a genuine longshot as being among Virginia’s next dozen, its distinctiveness, conspicuous perching, and long(ish)-staying tendencies up the chances a wee bit. 

WESTERN BLUEBIRD

Sialia mexicana

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

With Mountain Bluebird already on the list, Western would give Virginia the full sweep of bluebirds. Unfortunately, this species seems not to be given to wandering. There are very few records anywhere away from its core range, and none east of Texas. This species also presents a major identification challenge, and anything other than a nicely-plumaged adult male would be difficult for any but the most skilled birders to recognize in the field (and even they would struggle!). All of this adds up to a species that is clearly a longshot, though perhaps not impossible!

ZINO’S PETREL

Pterodroma medeira

(1/40 lists, 1 point)

The stuff of dreams for most North American birders, this rare Madeiran endemic has graced North American waters but a single time. Of course, that record is from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, which puts the species in play for Virginia. As if extreme rarity weren’t enough of a limiting factor, this is another species that presents a major identification challenge. Separating a Zino’s from a Fea’s (itself a rarity in Virginia!) is no easy task for even the most experienced birders.