The Runners-Up

Rounding out the Top 40 (with two extras thrown in for good measure), these birds comprise the species with three or more points that fell outside the Next Dozen. This list is a delightful mixed bag of birds that just barely missed the Dozen, right on down to a few single-votes that edged in on the basis of ranked choices. In instances of ties, species were awarded a higher ranking based on whether they received first, second, or third choice votes. True ties are presented alphabetically.

14.

BROAD-TAILED HUMMINGBIRD

Selasphorus platycercus

(9/40 lists, 14 points)

With Rufous, Allen’s, and Calliope already under our belt, this species is the logical next step for Virginia to complete a sweep of the four Selasphorus hummingbirds typically found in North America. Our voters certainly agreed, with nine people picking Broad-tailed, and enough folks listed it in their top three to give it fourteen points, finishing just inside the top fifteen. Ironically, though this Rocky Mountain breeder comes closer than any other Selasphorus in its normal range, it is also the rarest as an eastern vagrant. This species is a rare but regular winter visitor to the Gulf Coast, from eastern Texas to the extreme western part of the Florida Panhandle. Away from the coast, records drop off markedly, though there are still a fair few in Georgia and inland Alabama. This species clearly seems to be more of a southeastern vagrant, and records get more sporadic the further north you go. Tennessee has two, and central North Carolina has one, but none of these records is more recent than 2005. However, the species does have two Mid-Atlantic records from Delaware and New Jersey, so Virginia is certainly in play (those birds may even have passed through here!). This species is definitely a winter bird, with none of the eastern records showing up before November. Like almost all vagrant hummers, this bird is typically detected visiting a feeder. Some records have been long-staying; the New Jersey bird showed up in November 2011 and remained through April 2012. There is the potential for confusion with other Selasphorus, particularly Rufous/Allen’s, but Broad-tailed is distinctive in a number of ways. If we are lucky enough to get an adult male, it will be uniformly green above, with a white upper breast and belly, buffy-green flanks, and a red throat. Females and young males are less conspicuous, but are still uniformly green above with very buffy flanks and no hint of rufous color anywhere. Structure is also useful, as Broad-tailed is our largest Selasphorus, with a noticeably broader and longer tail than either Rufous or Allen’s.

15.

BAND-TAILED PIGEON

Patagioenas fasciata

(8/40 lists, 13 points)

With nearly a hundred records in eastern North America spread across all twelve months, Band-tailed Pigeon could certainly be among Virginia’s next dozen species. Typically found at feeders and often long-staying, the chance of detection is pretty high. However, as with Pink-footed Goose, vagrancy for this species in the eastern half of the continent skews more northern than Virginia. That said, single records from North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama certainly indicate that Virginia could find itself hosting one of these pigeons. Virginia’s eastern position on the continent is not an issue, with the species having made it to Maine, New Brunswick, and Nova Scotia. 

Another possible strike against it showing up among the next dozen species is that the species seems to have slowed down its eastern wanderings. Since 2015, there has only been a single report of the species outside its normal range, and that was only as far as eastern Nebraska. Throughout the roaming history of the species there have been eras where it would be found annually outside its normal range, but then it would ebb for a handful of years. Perhaps not a strong enough signal to call it a cycle, but there is some reason to believe that they’ll start wandering again. 

As mentioned above, it is almost certain that the discovery of this species will be at a bird feeder. For those reading this who either frequent their local wild bird stores—or even work at one—it is worth keeping this species in mind when someone brings in photos of an odd dove or pigeon hanging around their bird feeders. 

16.

BROAD-BILLED HUMMINGBIRD

Cynanthus latirostris

(9/40 lists, 13 points)

Though this species is more common in Mexico, with a breeding range that just barely reaches southeastern Arizona, it has a very wide-ranging pattern of vagrancy. As a state without a record, Virginia is actually in the minority; this species has been recorded from twenty-six states, as well as three Canadian provinces. These records are also geographically widespread. Though the highest concentrations are in the Southwest, coastal California, and the Gulf Coast, this species has occurred in almost every major region of the country. The northern Great Plains stands out as the largest, most obvious gap, but discouragingly for Virginia, there are also no records from the Mid-Atlantic unless one includes North Carolina. The latter has two records, however, including one from Southern Shores in Dare County, less than an hour from the Virginia line. Many of the records in our vicinity are relatively coastal, and none of our neighboring states has a substantially inland record, so it seems as though the Tidewater or Eastern Shore could be a good bet for this bird. Nine of our voters liked the odds enough to cast a ballot in favor, though it came out one behind Broad-tailed in the weighted totals to place third among hummingbirds. Broad-billed is a relatively large, stocky hummingbird. It is fairly distinct from any of the regular or semi-regular species in Virginia, with a very long, decurved red bill. The adult male is readily identifiable, with overall dark plumage, a deep-green back and crown, and dark blue on the throat and upper breast. Female and subadult birds are less vivid, but still stand out fairly well, with features including a dull gray underside, dark cheek patch, and white earmark. As with any vagrant hummer, odds are best that this species turns up at a feeder in late fall or winter.

17.

HAMMOND’S FLYCATCHER

Empidonax hammondii

(9/40 lists, 11 points)

This western species, roughly a counterpart to our Least Flycatcher, prefers high conifers and occupies a large breeding range extending from the Rockies and Pacific Northwest all the way through British Columbia and into Alaska. Though it is quite rare east of the Mississippi, when it does show up Hammond’s Flycatcher seems to have a strong tendency to favor the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast; apart from a small handful of records (several of which are from Florida), the bulk of records have occurred between Maryland and Nova Scotia. In fact, several of the states and provinces in this region have multiple records, including Maryland, New York, Massachusetts, and Nova Scotia. As with all Empidonax, identification presents a challenge, but the good news is that nearly every record has occurred between late November and early January, long after our regularly-occurring Empids have departed. There are one or two October records (though even that is on the late side for many of our Empids), but it is possible that birds get overlooked earlier in the fall due to identification challenges. Nonetheless, any time a Least-type flycatcher is encountered in November or December, this species should immediately merit consideration. Visual identification is fairly subjective, relying on factors including a grayer throat, contrast between gray head and greenish breast and back, darker lower mandible, and long primary extension. Hammond’s can also have a slightly crested appearance, which further differentiates it from Least. With good enough photos, these visual factors can clinch an identification. As is true with many flycatchers, vocalizations are especially helpful, so be ready to record if the bird can be coaxed into vocalizing.

18.

SNAIL KITE

Rostrhamus sociabilis

(11/40 lists, 11 points)

This charismatic raptor has long been considered a Florida specialty (at least in North America, though it is widespread in Latin America), but in recent years it has been increasingly on birders’ minds as a potential vagrant, as evidenced by the fact that this species received 11 votes, a shocking total for a bird that not so long ago would have been considered a major longshot. Like Limpkins (a species which has also seen a major uptick in vagrancy recently), Snail Kites feed almost exclusively on apple snails, but both species have adapted to eat exotic snails. As a result, both have seen marked population increases. Snail Kites formerly reached the northern limits of their Florida breeding range around Kissimmee, but they now commonly breed as far north as Gainesville. Though they have lagged a bit behind Limpkins in terms of extralimital vagrancy, records north of Florida have been increasing over the past decade. South Carolina recorded its first in 2007, and North Carolina in 2009; South Carolina has had two subsequent records, including one as recently as 2019. Just on the basis of these records, Virginia would seem the logical next step in this bird’s northward march. But also in 2019, a young bird was photographed on Lake Erie in northwestern Pennsylvania, an event which completely rewrote the possibilities for Snail Kite vagrancy. It now seems only a matter of time until this bird reaches Virginia, and our voters certainly appear to agree. Fortunately for birders here, this species often tends to stick around for at least a few days, so if one is found there may be a chance for many birders to enjoy it!

19.

YELLOW-BILLED LOON

Gavia adamsii

(11/40 lists, 11 points)

This bird will likely be found by a hardy, winter-loving birder who enjoys long hours of scanning open water with a scope while dressed to stay warm against the elements. Well, that was probably true, but as Virginia’s winters get more and more mild, someone might find one while wearing shorts and flip-flops. Either way, this bird will be found by diligent open-water scanning, either along the coast, Bay, or on one of our larger lakes. With over twenty records across eastern North America spread relatively evenly over the past quarter-century, this species has a good chance of being found in any winter. While discoveries do seem to have slowed since 2012, one found last winter on Cape Cod suggests that the species is still ripe for the picking. 

This rare loon nests on ponds in arctic tundra across North America and Eurasia. It is similar in both appearance and habits to Common Loon, and can sometimes be found in the same locations. The most reliable identifying feature that distinguishes it from the more familiar Common Loon are details of the bill. As the name implies, Yellow-billed Loon has a yellow bill—but only sometimes. During breeding season, the bill is distinctly yellow or ivory, compared to the black bill of Common Loon. While records of this species in the eastern United States sometimes pertain to birds in breeding plumage, it is more typical that one will be found between November and January, when the bill isn’t certain to be yellow. In these cases, the best feature to identify Yellow-billed from Common is still the bill. Yellow-billed will show the distal half (or more) as pale or yellowish-white. The upper mandible appears straight on the top, which gives the bird an upturned-bill look, though that alone does not clinch the ID as a Yellow-billed. There is a wealth of information online about the differences in the bills of these two loons, and any birder hoping to pin their name to the state’s first Yellow-billed would do well to study them in advance. It is also worth pointing out that lighting can make a Common Loon’s bill appear pale, or even yellow in certain conditions. This has fooled many birders in the past, some rather famously. As with most species on this list, careful study and good note-taking is a must. If the opportunity for good photographs exists, those will be quite helpful too.

20.

COUCH’S KINGBIRD

Tyrannus couchii

(6/40 lists, 10 points)

This sister-species to Tropical Kingbird received far fewer votes—and with good reason, as it exhibits a much weaker pattern of vagrancy. Outside its typical haunts in southern Texas, this species most regularly makes it to further-flung areas within that state, as well as western Louisiana. There are also scattered records west to California, east to Florida, and north to southern Oklahoma and Arkansas. Records further north and east are much less common, but there are a handful including two from Michigan and one each from Massachusetts, New York, and Maryland. Apart from Florida, the Southeast stands as a gaping hole with no records from Virginia to Georgia, but hopefully we can buck that trend! Though probably less imminent than Tropical, this species does seem to be increasing and it is probably just a matter of time until one finds its way to Virginia. Six of our voters thought so, and more tellingly, two people ranked this as their second choice. The same identification challenges with Tropical apply here, and the best way to confirm either of these species is by hearing (and ideally recording!) vocalizations.

21.

YELLOW-GREEN VIREO

Vireo flavoviridis

(10/40 lists, 10 points)

Breeding largely in Mexico and Central America and wintering in the Amazon Basin, this species has shown an uptick in reports of East Coast vagrants in recent years. All records north of Florida on the East Coast have come since 2011, when Massachusetts’s first state record was caught in banding nets at the Plum Island Research Station on 5 September. Curiously, four of the five additional records on the East Coast also come from banding operations: Massachusetts (15 Oct 2019), New Jersey (26 Sep 2018 and 1 Oct 2020), and South Carolina (22-27 Sep 2016). There is only a single report of a “wild” bird, which comes from Cape May on 23 May 2019, and represents the only spring record for the East Coast. All six of these records come from the immediate coast. That five of the six records are of birds caught in mist nets suggests that this species may be overlooked by observers, so give all those coastal vireos a careful once over. Separation of this species from the abundant Red-eyed Vireo is by its long, deep, pale bill; highlighter-yellow coloration of the cheeks, sides of neck and flanks; weak eyeline; indistinct white supercilium; yellow across breast (not present on all Yellow-green Vireos, but absent in Red-eyed Vireos); yellow edging to the tail feathers, particularly as seen from below; and bright yellow underwing coverts. It is worth keeping in mind that both Red-eyed and Yellow-green Vireos undergo a single annual molt in the late summer, making them brightest in the fall and duller in spring.

Given this apparent penchant of vagrant Yellow-green Vireos for coastal habitats and the existence of records to our north and south, it seems quite likely that this species has passed undetected through Virginia, perhaps on multiple occasions. It seems reasonable to hope that this species will be found somewhere along our extensive coastline. Back Bay NWR, Kiptopeke State Park, Eastern Shore of Virginia NWR, and Chincoteague NWR seem like plausible locations for this species to be discovered by a diligent observer. While fall seems the most likely time for a record, a spring bird would not be without precedent.

22.

INCA DOVE

Columbina inca

(5/40 lists, 9 points)

This diminutive dove is a common, widespread species with a range that stretches from the American Southwest and Texas throughout Mexico and into northern Central America. It is well-adapted to suburban and urban areas, with an affinity for towns with birdfeeders and lawns. Perhaps as a result of its success in human-modified environments, this species has been undergoing a range expansion at both its northern and southern limits for quite some time. Inca Doves are now regular in southern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas, all of Louisiana, and along the Gulf Coast to the Pensacola area. Many of the records outside its core range seem to be connected to this expansion, occasionally resulting in breeding attempts or even presaging colonization of an area. Consistent with its mostly northward expansion, records are most numerous in Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri. This species does make it further north, having reached as far as Minnesota and Ontario, but these are outliers. Eastern records are in short supply, with all but a few records coming from well to our west. The three closest records to Virginia all come from 2006: central Maryland, far western West Virginia (Huntington), and east Tennessee. The latter two overlap longitudinally with southwest Virginia, so if this species does reach us it is worth considering that it may turn up in that part of the state.

23.

WHOOPING CRANE

Grus americana

(5/40 lists, 9 points)

This charismatic species may rank as the biggest surprise of the report! Though there are fewer than a thousand of these birds in the world, and only a handful of records anywhere near us, this species is apparently on Virginia birders’ minds, as it received 5 votes, including two from respondents who listed it as their number two pick! Whooping Cranes are federally endangered, with carefully managed populations, extensive captive breeding and reintroduction programs, and a very limited range. At one time this species had dwindled to a wild population of just twenty-one birds, and though these majestic creatures have made a substantial recovery, the Whooping Crane is still a species on the brink. The birds originating from the last wild population undertake an annual migration from the Northwest Territories and extreme northern Saskatchewan to wintering grounds on the Texas coast, primarily Aransas National Wildlife Refuge. Conservation efforts have included attempts to establish nonmigratory populations in Florida and Louisiana, as well as a painstaking effort to create a second migratory population that breeds in Wisconsin and winters in Florida. It is this eastern migratory population that would likely be the source of any potential Virginia record. The Wisconsin birds gained fame for the unique method that conservationists used to acclimate them to migration: training and guiding the birds using ultralight aircraft. Unfortunately, this population has met with mixed success in the wild, and while the Wisconsin flock currently numbers just over a hundred birds, it has experienced less successful reproduction than hoped for. Nonetheless, the Wisconsin Bird Records Committee recognizes this population as successfully established, and notes that as a result of the reintroductions, Whooping Crane “is now considered a valid species with numerous records.” Following this logic, a vagrant originating from this population would likely constitute a valid record in Virginia, too. This flock follows a migration route through Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Alabama on its way to Florida. Hiawasee NWR in central Tennessee is a major concentration point for migrating Sandhill and Whooping Cranes, with multiple Whoopers detected here each year. Birds occasionally stray east of the main migration path, and there are records from eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina that fall east of southwestern Virginia. More rarely, birds turn up significantly away from the expected path, with records from coastal South Carolina, central North Carolina, Vermont, and southern Quebec. Given the proximity of southwest Virginia to the normal migration route, it is not inconceivable to think that a stray bird could be spotted on the ground or even detected as a flyover there. Away from the southwest prospects become more distant, but not impossible. Sometimes standing over five feet tall, and with gleaming white plumage, this is a bird that has a high probability of detection if it occurs. Confusion with Sandhill Crane is possible, but this species’ white plumage is never matched by any Sandhill.

24.

WHITE WAGTAIL

Motacilla alba

(8/40 lists, 9 points)

Eurasian passerines didn’t make a major showing on the ballots, but White Wagtail was the strongest finisher with eight total votes and one third place pick. This species is extremely widespread across Eurasia, stretching from western Europe across the continent to the Pacific, with localized breeding populations even spilling over into Greenland and the Aleutians. It is also a highly variable bird, with several field-identifiable subspecies across its range. In the Lower 48, it is a frequent vagrant up and down the West Coast, with dozens of records in California alone. Eastern records are sparser, with only about a dozen this side of the Mississippi, but they are also geographically widespread (and seemingly random) — among the states and provinces with records are Newfoundland and Labrador, Quebec (two records), New Hampshire, Michigan (three records, in both the Upper and Lower Peninsulas), North Carolina (two records, one each of the European and Siberian race), South Carolina, and Florida (two records). This species is very distinctive, and essentially unlike any North American species, so it stands a good chance of attracting notice if one does occur. In its native range, it is an open country bird with a particular affinity for rivers and coastlines. Eastern vagrants have been found on rocky coasts, beaches, wastewater treatment plants, and airports, so any expansive open location could be a good candidate. The Wash Flats at Chincoteague come to mind, as does Craney Island or perhaps the beach at Kiptopeke. One of our voters even suggested Kerr Reservoir as a possible location.  

25.

SPOTTED REDSHANK

Tringa erythropus

(5/40 lists, 8 points)

An adult in breeding plumage just might be one of the most strikingly attractive shorebird species one could ever hope to see this side of the Atlantic. This species does have a fairly well-established pattern of vagrancy in the East, with a scattering of records up and down the Atlantic coast from North Carolina to Massachusetts, as well as records from southern Ontario, the Great Lakes, and a few inland birds in the Midwest. Unfortunately, recent records are in very short supply and most of the eastern records occurred between the 1960s and 1990s. This is especially true on the East Coast, where the most recent record is a New York bird from 1992. The two relatively recent occurrences have been significantly west of us, with one from Indiana in 2013 and one from Michigan in 2018. Nonetheless, these ignited enough hope in our voters that five people picked Spotted Redshank for the Next Dozen. If a breeding-plumage adult shows up, as was the case in Indiana, this bird is nearly unmistakeable and should certainly attract notice. A non-breeding bird invites more confusion with yellowlegs, but even then the bright red legs are a dead giveaway to a careful observer. This species could conceivably be discovered anywhere that attracts shorebirds, but naturally the prime shorebird spots at Chincoteague NWR, Craney Island, and Hog Island WMA are the obvious picks.

26.

HERMIT WARBLER

Setophaga occidentalis

(8/40 lists, 8 points)

Though lacking the vibrant colors of some of its relatives, this western warbler has an understated beauty that is surely amplified by its rarity anywhere in the East. The fact that this species is probably next in line after Virginia’s Warbler speaks less to its likelihood than it does to the comprehensiveness of our warbler list. Its core breeding range is the West Coast, with migrants making their way through the Southwest as they head to Mexico and Central America for winter. This species is a casual vagrant to both Colorado and coastal Texas, with a smattering of records spread across both. Further east, records become scarcer, but the species nonetheless has a fairly clear pattern of vagrancy that forms a wide arc across the upper Midwest, Great Lakes region, and New England. Virginia’s chances are somewhat diminished by the fact that this species doesn’t seem to be much of a southeastern vagrant; the closest record to us is a 2019 bird from western Maryland, but prior to that there was nothing south of New York. However, a record from this past September in coastal Florida was a significant departure from the typical pattern of vagrancy, providing not just a first state record, but a first record for the Southeast. Perhaps this bodes well for Virginia’s chances, and certainly our voters thought so, with Hermit Warbler bringing in 8 votes! The Florida bird stuck around for two days and was seen by dozens of birders, so hopefully a future Virginia record will show our birders the same courtesy.

27.

BUFF-BELLIED HUMMINGBIRD

Amazilia yucatanensis

(5/40 lists, 7 points)

Among the five hummingbirds that received votes, Buff-bellied finished fourth, despite the fact that there are multiple records as close as North Carolina. This may be because, while the other hummingbirds that received votes have a scattershot pattern of records distributed fairly widely in eastern North America, Buff-bellied Hummingbird seems to be much more closely tied to the Gulf Coast. This species is a regular wintering bird in much of coastal Texas and Louisiana, where it is among the more common winter hummingbirds. Less frequently, it makes it further east along the Gulf Coast to Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. Away from these locations, however, the number of records declines measurably. There are only a few non-coastal records for the Southeast, with one for Arkansas and a few each in inland Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. Coastal records north of Florida are also few and far between, with a handful each in Georgia and South Carolina. North Carolina currently has two records: one coastal, and one inland near Winston-Salem, but they didn’t even notch their first record until 2007. The one significant outlier in what is otherwise a faithful pattern is a 2017 bird from Wisconsin, just north of Milwaukee, which just goes to show that almost anything can happen when it comes to hummingbirds. That said, despite Buff-bellied being one of the most regular wintering hummingbirds in North America, and despite records from relatively close to Virginia, this species seems like more of a longshot than Broad-billed, Broad-tailed, or Mexican Violetear.

28.

CASSIN’S KINGBIRD

Tyrannus vociferans

(7/40 lists, 7 points)

Though this species typically falls well behind Tropical and Couch’s when birders think of yellow-bellied kingbird vagrants, it does have a strong enough pattern of vagrancy to perhaps merit more consideration. At least some of our voters thought so, with Cassin’s pulling in six picks. Most of the records seem to be along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic to New England, with a smaller cluster around the Great Lakes. A majority of the records seem to come from October, so be on the lookout for this species a bit earlier than “prime” rarity season. There are also multiple records from summer and winter. One point in this bird’s favor is that a fair portion of the records have occurred in the past five years, including two from southern Ontario, and one each from Massachusetts, New York, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Illinois. Identification could present an issue, but this species is somewhat distinctive with its dark throat and contrasting white malar. Fortunately, it is a conspicuous bird that has a good chance at being spotted and photographed. 

29.

WOOD SANDPIPER

Tringa glareola

(6/40 lists, 6 points)

After Little Stint and Spotted Redshank, this tiny Tringa placed third among European shorebirds (it actually received one vote more than redshank, but the latter gained the edge in the weighted totals). Once very rare anywhere away from Alaska, this species has reached both coasts somewhat more regularly in recent years. Though still a mega rarity, the past ten years has produced records from Washington, Montana, California, Rhode Island, New York, and most recently, New Jersey. The closest this species has thus far reached is Delaware, but there is no reason to think it couldn’t turn up at one of the shorebird hotspots in Virginia, particularly Chincoteague or Craney. Identification presents a bit of a problem. Though smaller than even a Lesser Yellowlegs, and with a fairly distinct supercilium and eyeline, this species could certainly invite confusion with other Tringa, particularly if views were distant or imperfect. Likewise, this bird could also be easily overlooked if it was associating with a large group of yellowlegs. Timing on this species appears to be a bit tough to pin down; though records suggest it is a spring or fall bird, the five previous eastern records are from five different months (April, May, September, October, November). Though this species could be the reward for patiently scouring masses of yellowlegs, it is worth pointing out that the recent New Jersey bird was with a group of 30 or fewer, so don’t discount the possibility of one with a smaller flock.

 30.

CASSIN’S SPARROW

Peucaea cassinii

(4/40 lists, 5 points)

Potential sparrows for Virginia drop off precipitously after Golden-crowned, with Cassin’s, its closest challenger, receiving only four votes. Cassin’s Sparrow belongs to the genus Peucaea, a genus of sparrows mostly found in the Southwest and Mexico that is only represented by Bachman’s in the East. Though some of the Mexican members of this genus are quite striking, the species found in the United States are fairly drab and indistinct. This certainly applies to Cassin’s Sparrow, which won’t win any beauty contests. What it lacks in attractive plumage, however, this species makes up for with the males’ lark-like display flight and song. Mostly confined to the south-central U.S., this species has shown up east of the Mississippi River about fifteen times. With the exception of a bird from central North Carolina, records in the Southeast are conspicuously lacking. The region with the most records is the southern Great Lakes (Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and southern Ontario), with a weaker pattern of records to the Northeast including Nova Scotia, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and New York. Apart from the aforementioned North Carolina record, the sole other Mid-Atlantic bird is one from Point Lookout in southern Maryland, just across the Potomac from us. It is worth noting that this species clearly seems to be more of a spring vagrant, with a notable majority of records in May (particularly the first two weeks). Though less commonly a fall vagrant, the Maryland, New Hampshire, and New York records all come from late September or early October, so a fall bird is certainly possible. Also of note is the fact that four of the eastern records are from 2011, suggesting that they were associated with a larger vagrancy event, so be extra vigilant for this species if birds start turning up in other nearby states. 

31.

WHITE-CHINNED PETREL

Procellaria aequinoctialis

(1/40 lists, 4 points)

This species, along with four others in the genus Procellaria, comprise a group of Southern Hemisphere species collectively referred to as “black petrels.” Any of these species is extremely rare in North American waters, with only White-chinned and Parkinson’s having any records at all. In the case of White-chinned, almost all the accepted North American records come from California in September and October, with a single East Coast record of a bird photographed off Maine in late August. Though unconfirmed, there is a credible sight record of this species off North Carolina from October 1996, which at least suggests the possibility of a vagrant in the East. That this species has yet to be definitively recorded on any of the regular pelagics out of North Carolina points to how elusive it is, but the pelagic zone is nothing if not a place of unexpected and sometimes downright miraculous occurrences. Few would have ever predicted North Carolina to get a Tahiti Petrel, so why not a White-chinned for Virginia? Though this species only received a single vote, it was selected as a #1 pick, proving that extreme pelagic rarities loom large for at least some of Virginia’s birders!

32.

LONG-BILLED MURRELET

Brachyramphus perdix

(3/40 lists, 4 points)

The only alcid to appear on our list is this diminutive Asian vagrant. Native to the Pacific Coast of Asia, this bird is truly rare anywhere in North America. It disperses from its breeding grounds along the Pacfic Rim in Asia, sometimes resulting in strays being found in North America. Interestingly, the Pacific coast of North America accounts for only about half of the sixty-five or so records shown in eBird. The remainder are inland, or in the eastern half of the continent. Most eastern records are in November and December, with a few outliers in adjacent months. 

What pushes this bird down our list is the near total absence of recent records. The species hasn’t been observed in eastern North America since 2008. Still, it has shown amazing vagrancy in the past, and has shown up in unexpected places. Among these are the Ohio River in downtown Louisville, Kentucky, and on a 100-acre reservoir in northern Ohio. While it is often found on the Pacific Ocean by West Coast birders, only a handful of the eastern records are of birds on the Atlantic Ocean. Considering that this strange little alcid nests in trees amid old growth coniferous forests, perhaps it isn’t so surprising that it isn’t picky about the body of water it lands on when it is far from home. 

Any alcid found on an inland body of water in Virginia is going to command a lot of attention and scrutiny. It is certain that if a Long-billed Murrelet does appear somewhere inland in Virginia—and a birder happens to see it—it won’t be passed over for something more common. If you are that birder, be sure to take lots of notes and get as many pictures as possible, and then get the word out. These birds do tend to stick around once they find a place to settle. Kerr Reservoir seems an obvious choice of where Virginia’s first might be found. Other lakes like Lake Anna, Smith Mountain Lake, Lake Moomaw, or Claytor Lake all seem possible, too. Even smaller lakes, the size of which can be found in most counties, could be the venue for a once-in-a-lifetime chance to see a Long-billed Murrelet in Virginia. 

33.

ANTILLEAN NIGHTHAWK

Chordeiles gundlachii

(4/40 lists, 4 points)

This Caribbean species netted four votes, perhaps at least partially influenced by the recent record from Hatteras that is, if not right down the road, certainly in our neck of the woods. Unfortunately, this record is one of very few outside Florida. Though a breeder in the Keys, it is a rare visitor even to other parts of Florida. The only other states with records are Louisiana and North Carolina, and the former has only a single record from 1977. North Carolina, however, has recorded this species three times: 1994, 1996, and the bird from this past August, all from Hatteras. This is close enough to Virginia to put the species on our radar, but Hatteras also seems to get good-sized concentrations of vocalizing nighthawks, a phenomenon which coastal Virginia lacks. Vocal identification is almost essential with this species; though it has subtle differences in size, wing-length, and flight style, by far the most reliable identification (and documentation) method is by voice (this species gives a distinctive “pitty-pit-pit” call). Two of the North Carolina birds were discovered in early August and remained at Hatteras for weeks, while the 1996 bird was from late May. 

34.

IVORY GULL

Pagophila eburnea

(4/40 lists, 4 points)

This ethereal Arctic wanderer has long been a grail bird for North American birders, and certainly any Virginia record would attract hundreds of eager observers. These beautiful birds breed in the high Arctic and spend their winters at the edges of pack ice, but they occasionally stray further south. Records are widely distributed, with large clusters in the Canadian Maritimes, northeastern United States, and Great Lakes, along with more scattered records in the Midwest and West. Though Tennessee, Alabama, and Georgia each have a record (the same bird provided records for the latter two), these are exceptional occurrences. Apart from that, records in Cape May, central Ohio, and central Illinois are more typical of this bird’s southern reach. This species has also seen drastic population declines in recent years, as its strong reliance on pack ice has made the Ivory Gull one of the species most drastically and immediately affected by climate change. There was a large influx of birds moving south in 2010, a year which furnished records from Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York, and southern Ontario. Since then, there have been a handful of additional records in the Midwest and southern Canada, but none in the East. A morbid possibility is that this species will turn up out-of-range with increasing frequency as its Arctic habitat further recedes, but there is also the equally sobering chance that the 2010 incursion was the last hurrah. Several optimistic birders hope this sprightly bird will still grace Virginia with its presence, and we hope they prove to be correct!

35.

PAINTED REDSTART

Myioborus pictus

(4/40 lists, 4 points)

Another longshot pick, but a stunning species that would delight every birder lucky enough to find it in their binoculars. This striking warbler has a weak vagrancy pattern in the East, with about twelve records north of the Gulf Coast. These eastern records span from Manitoba to Massachusetts, and until recently, south only to Ohio. That changed just a few weeks ago when one was discovered 5 October 2020 at Pea Island, on the Outer Banks of North Carolina. Then to raise the ante (and the envy!), another was discovered 18 October in Brooklyn, New York! The four folks who picked this as one of Virginia’s next dozen birds are probably feeling pretty good about that pick right about now. Of the dozen or so records in the East, two are in spring (April and June), with the balance in fall/winter (six in October, three in November, one in January). Over half of these records were from this century, all of those since 2015. When they do show up, these Redstarts are usually around for more than a day (of the twelve, three were one-day-only records). None of this century’s waifs have been found at feeders, though a couple of the older reports were found at feeding stations. 

What Painted Redstart has got going for it is an unmistakable plumage. Black, white, and a big splash of red across the breast and belly will guarantee that any observer who sees it will note it, even if they don’t immediately know what it is. Coupled with their knack for sticking around, it is likely that some folks will be able to chase it, and get the bird well documented. In light of the two recent reports, I feel like we should all be outside looking for this bird! 

36.

SMEW

Mergellus albellus

(1/40 lists, 3 points)

Virginia is closing in on having just about all of its expected waterfowl (Pink-footed Goose notwithstanding!), but this attractive Eurasian duck could be among the remaining possibilities. The Smew is a literal odd duck, typically placed in a monotypic genus and varyingly held to be most closely related to either the mergansers or the goldeneye. Regardless, it is a distinctive bird in either male or female plumage, and any bird that makes it to Virginia seems likely to be detected. This species is a sparse but widely-distributed vagrant to North America, with a handful of records from the West Coast, Midwest, and Northeast. In the latter region, most of the records are clustered around the St. Lawrence Seaway and eastern Great Lakes in Ontario and New York. Though Rhode Island has multiple records, the species hasn’t been reported there since the mid-1970s. Encouragingly, three Ontario records and one New York have occurred within the past decade. Though an admittedly distant possibility, Virginia is hardly off the table for this species, and one of our voters felt strongly enough to include this species in their top three! As with many waterfowl, the issue of provenance would undoubtedly be raised with regards to any potential Virginia record, but there seems to be enough of an established pattern that it could hopefully pass muster.

37.

BLACK PHOEBE

Sayornis nigricans

(3/30 lists, 3 points)

This striking black-and-white flycatcher is abundant and conspicuous out West, but it has long been written off as a species with essentially no pattern of eastern vagrancy. Typically it reaches no further than west Texas, and it rarely wanders much further; even records in east Texas and southern Oklahoma are fairly unusual. However, this perception changed drastically in January 2019, when a Black Phoebe spent several weeks in northern New Jersey and was well-documented by dozens of observers. Though this record remains a significant outlier, it has finally put this species on the menu—though it only received a single vote in the recent Maryland’s Next 10, the compilers dubbed it a species that “should have received more votes.” Virginia’s voters were more drawn to Black Phoebe, and it received three votes (just enough to edge into the Top 40). Though this species is quite distinctive, it is not without identification pitfalls. The pattern of black and white is similar enough to Dark-eyed Junco that they are occasionally confused by novice birders. That said, don’t write off every eBird alert for a Black Phoebe as a misidentification, because one of these days it just might be the real deal!

38.

BLACK-BELLIED STORM-PETREL

Fregetta tropica

(3/40 lists, 3 points)

Apart from Masked Booby, this species received the most individual votes of any primarily pelagic species (though White-chinned Petrel narrowly edged it out in the weighted totals). Pelagics as a whole may have made a better showing if “random pelagic species” was an option. The pelagic zone may be one of the last remaining frontiers for exploration in North American birding. Certainly it is a realm that is poorly understood, little-explored, and where nearly anything is possible. Thanks to Brian Patteson’s regular trips out of Hatteras, North Carolina has at least semi-regular offshore coverage, as well as a roster of species including Swinhoe’s Storm-Petrel, Zino’s Petrel, Cape Verde Shearwater, and Tahiti Petrel. This certainly hints at the potential for new and exciting finds, but the fact that many of these species have only been recorded a handful of times even with regular trips speaks to the rarity of these birds as well as the vastness of their ocean habitat. The lack of regular pelagic outings in Virginia certainly hamstrings us, but as a recent boat that netted our state-first European Storm-Petrel demonstrates, any individual trip could strike gold. Among the species recorded off Hatteras, Black-bellied may be as good a bet as any for Virginia. This Southern Hemisphere species only rarely comes north of the equator, but Hatteras has recorded it four times. The emergence of a pattern, even if only a weak one, could bode well for this bird eventually being spotted in Virginia waters.

39.

BRAMBLING

Fringilla montifringilla

(3/40 lists, 3 points)

Just barely scraping the Top 40 with three votes, this pretty finch was one of relatively few Eurasian passerines to attract our voters’ attention. Among European species, Brambling is one of the more common North American vagrants. However, most of the Lower 48 records tend to be in the northern half of the country, which puts Virginia at a bit of a disadvantage. The largest concentration of records is in the Pacific Northwest, but the species has a wide arc of records across the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England. As a general rule, the records seem to stop short just north of Virginia, with some of the closest records coming from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and northern New Jersey. There are a few southern outliers, including a record from western North Carolina and one from Arkansas, so Virginia is clearly not off the table. The prime window for this species seems to be from mid-November through early April, with the winter months accounting for a large share of records. The majority of records are feeder birds, so this one has a good shot of being discovered by a backyard birder. Maybe it will come to the wider community’s attention through a social media post, or even a report to the local Wild Birds Unlimited!

40.

EURASIAN TREE SPARROW

Passer montanus

(3/40 lists, 3 points)

Firmly established in a small area of eastern Missouri, southeastern Iowa, and southwestern Illinois that radiates out from the original 1870 introduction site in St. Louis, this exotic has been experiencing a steady population increase and a more gradual range expansion in the past several decades. Data from the Breeding Bird Survey have indicated a population increase of about 5.8% per year, but range expansion seems to be confined to north and eastward. Similarly, records of wandering birds seem to be mostly to the north and east, with a scattershot of records across Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and southern Ontario. Some birds have made it considerably further to the northwest, with records from both Dakotas as well as Manitoba and Sakatchewan. This may spell bad news for hopes that this species will reach Virginia; the highest concentration of records east of the main U.S. range is in southern Ontario between Detroit and Toronto. Further east, there is a 1995 record from Massachusetts and—more significantly for Virginia—a 2014 record from Cape May that was seen by many. Though this species is clearly a bit of a longshot, this record stoked at least a few birders’ hopes, as Eurasian Tree Sparrow managed to make multiple lists. Apart from a few winter sightings, records in southern Ontario seem to heavily favor early spring (April and May), a pattern which the Cape May record conforms to. This is a bird that favors suburban and urban areas, so it is just as likely that someone trips over Virginia’s first record rather than anyone actively searching for it. A tree sparrow could conceivably occur anywhere in the state, so (dare we say it!) check those House Sparrow flocks carefully!

41.

LESSER NIGHTHAWK

Chordeiles acutipennis

(3/40 lists, 3 points)

In North America, this southwestern goatsucker breeds in arid habitats from California and Nevada along the southern edge of the country to lower Texas. Some populations in Central America are resident, while migratory birds spend the winter in a wide swath of Central and South America. Within the United States, this bird is a fairly regular wanderer to Florida, coastal Louisiana, and Colorado. Further-flung vagrants are less common, but eastern North America has a handful of records including two each for New Jersey and southern Ontario, as well as a single record from West Virginia. Like most nightjars, this species is cryptically-plumaged and somewhat secretive, so detectability and identification are both factors. Perhaps unsurprisingly, then, two of the eastern records pertain to birds that were found deceased. Both New Jersey records, on the other hand, were birds discovered at a roost, thereby allowing for more detailed study. Barring either of these possibilities, a Virginia record could certainly be discovered on the wing, but this would involve a more complex identification process. The most important distinguishing factors have to do with the wing pattern, as Lesser has white bars closer to the wingtips and buffy spotting on the underside of the wings. Despite some of these limiting factors, however, three of our voters picked this among their dozen, placing Lesser Nighthawk one vote behind its Caribbean cousin.

42.

ROSS’S GULL

Rhodostethia rosea

(3/40 lists, 3 points)

As with Ivory Gull, Virginia lacks this elegant and sought-after Arctic gull despite a good number of records in neighboring states. In the case of this species, our neighbors to the north in Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania all have records. Unfortunately, all of these records date to the 1990s, and the furthest south this species has made it in the past decade is Massachusetts and upstate New York. This doesn’t bode well for our chances, but it is also hard to predict how Arctic species will respond to the escalating changes to their habitat brought on by climate change. Though it would be bittersweet at best, it is not altogether unreasonable to speculate that this species might reach Virginia as a result of changing environmental conditions. Three of our voters thought so, placing Ross’s just one vote below its fellow Arctic dweller, Ivory Gull. Many of the records to the north of us are either coastal or on the Great Lakes, so it would make sense to expect this bird near the shore, but there are also some inland records. All of the nearby records seem to fall within a window from October to April. A noticeable portion of these records are from March and early April, so perhaps the beginning of spring might be the best time to keep this bird in mind. Extensively checking large flocks of Bonaparte’s Gulls might eventually yield one, as several previous records were of a bird mixed in with a massive Bonie flock. Spend enough time checking Bonaparte’s flocks off Cape Henry, and this bird might surely await you!